If Monty WAS VFD he would have known the Sebald Code, and Lemony even says somewhere in UA( I think when he is waiting for Gustav Sebald..) that Monty can't be VFD for the reason above. Anyways, if he WHERE VFD he would have recognised Olaf, or at least his costume, cos it is (most likely) part of the VFD disguise kit. Oh well...
philipjucker, Lemony writes in the U.A. that Monty never learnt the Sebald code. We've all made the reasonable assumption that Gustav was around to translate stuff for Monty.
Monty's assistant Gustav was probably Dr. Gustav Sebald (the same passage in the U.A. indicates that this is the case). This causes some serious chronological inconsitencies due to death, the movie etc., but they're not the only ones (fifteen-year gap and the Prospero).
What really confuses me is how long it took for Gustav to make that movie. It's probably possible to film a movie in a few days, but most of the time movies take a long time to film, edit, get it to theaters, etc. Also, it seems that Gustav found out about Stephano and had time to make the movie before Stephano drowned him.
As I've said, it's all part of the inconsistency. Olaf's confession to Gustav's murder made it seem like he did it not long before the Baudelaires came to stay, which would make it a little difficult for Gustav to make a movie about how Stephano isn't a good guy.
Still, I wonder why Gustav went to all the trouble of making a movie just for that message. There would(probably) be much easier ways to send the message. It seems that in Snicket's world everyone does things the hard way; Olaf's plans are so clumsily elaborate. I guess it just makes for a better story.
Quick and easy doesn't make for a good story. If a volunteer had just run in, shouted, "You fool, Monty, this is O.!" then ripped off Olaf's fake beard, it would have been much less interesting. Plus Monty would still be alive, and etc.
Besides, movies and codes were Sebald's specialty. It would be out of character to do otherwise.
Edit: A curse on that movie! I have a perfectly good theory on who the survivor is, but then the movie's message about the survivor would be pointless!
Who do you think this survivor is? Personally, I think that there's more than one survivor out there--not necessarily from the same fire. The file reads "a survivor of the fire" meaning "a survivor from a fire mentioned earlier". This doesn't rule out survivors from other fires. But which fire did the file really speak of?
It would make sense that the movie referred to the Baudelaire fire, since it asks Monty to bring the children to the village where the film was shot.
And I theorised that Olaf was the survivor. it makes sense, because Olaf and Esmé haven't actually seen the wording of page 13, they just think it says a parent survived because Violet asked Esmé if one of them did. And think what an unfortunate end it would make! How awful the Baudelaires would feel when it was revealed! But of course, it makes no sense for Olaf to be in the snowman, so I suppose I must be wrong. *sigh*