The Change in Plans (book 12 spoilers)

[RockSunner]

Near the end of TGG, Olaf, Esme, and Carmelita were about to arrive at the Hotel Denouement and immediately burn it down. Carmelita said she was going to dance on the graves of the volunteers.

When we see them in TPP, they are staying at the hotel and planning a cocktail party for two days later. What changed?

My theory is that Fernald and Fiona's betrayal, stealing the submarine, is what made Olaf change his mind. Left without low-level henchpersons to do the dirty work, Olaf put in a call to the Menaces (MWBANH, WWHANB) and asked for the freaks back. At that point, perhaps the Menaces suggested a more refined trap, setting up a cocktail party and inviting as many victims as possible.

What do others think of this?

[Sixteen]

I think their intention was to immediately retrieve the sugar bowl and burn the hotel.
But when they found out that it hadn't been delivered yet, they decided to stay incognito at the hotel.

If Kit and the other volunteers watching the skies had seen smoke, the sugar bowl would never reach Olaf.

[Dante]

“In just a few minutes,” Esmé bragged, “we will arrive at the Hotel Denouement, thanks to our bratty rowing crew. Tee hee triumphant! V.F.D.’s last safe place will soon be in ashes – just like your home, Baudelaires!”

“I’m going to do a special tap-dancing ballerina fairy princess veterinarian dance recital,” Carmelita bragged, “on the graves of all those volunteers!”

TGG – p278

Your theory makes sense. And besides, the newer plan also allowed them to steal people's valuables (and Olaf could get rid of all his enemies and less useful comrades).

This is something I thought was odd when I read TPP, although my confusion was mainly because in TGG, Olaf stated that the sinister man and woman were already there.

“To cheer myself up,” the villain continued, “I met my associates at the Hotel Denouement, where they were cooking up a little scheme of their own, and convinced them to lend me a handful of our new recruits.”

TGG – p193

Although he could have been referring to the trial, actually...

Also, just related quotations:

“I wish we had those carnival freaks with us,” the hook-handed man said. “They could help carry some of these uniforms.”

“We’ll see them at Hotel Denouement,” Count Olaf, “along with the rest of my comrades.”

TGG – p295

[Sixteen]

Actually, what comrades is Olaf referring to?

Nero, Sir etc.?

[Antenora]

Nero and Sir, and possibly the Prufrock teachers, were probably the comrades Olaf meant.

I like the theory that Olaf changed his plans because Fernald and Fiona defected, and he needed more help. Perhaps Esme also encouraged him to have a big party there, so that they could steal more valubles.

[Dante]

Esmé would certainly have enjoyed the idea of planning a fashionable and violent cocktail party, and the menacing two would have wanted to ruin the trial and V.F.D. forever. I thought the comrades Olaf was referring to were the man with a beard but no hair and the woman with hair but no beard (that's who the Baudelaires thought he meant). Possibly he has other villainous friends who weren't seen - there are far more villains in the world than just the ones we've seen.

[lauren]

I think you're right Sedici, his main priority was getting his hands on the sugarbowl and then he might consider arson...and of course the plan to steal others valuables seemed appealing aswell

[RockSunner]

Here is another possible reason for his change in plans: Olaf talked about his fire plan before he was given a deadlier weapon, the Medusoid Mycelium. The new weapon called for a change in strategy; he had to get his enemies into an enclosed space. Hence, the cocktail party.

[PJ]

Yeah, I think all those things influenced it...
Fernald Defecting, the Medusoid Mycelium, and the news that the sugar bowl hadn't arrived yet all made him wait. Or perhaps the duo convinced him not to burn it all down, or something.

[jman]

You guys all seem to have a piece of the puzzle.

[Dante]

But none of us can see the whole truth, as nothing makes sense without some other missing pieces.

[jman]

My thoughts exactly, Dante!

[Sugary Snicket]

Good research...... Seems fishy.

I think that Olaf and Esme TRIED to go for their original plan, but could not because Fernald and Fiona defected from HIM. Then he had to change plans. The sinister duo might have told him that there was a staggering number of volunteers, maybe enough to defeat them, and gave him the freaks back. He may have asked them also to come there so Olaf, Esme, Carmie, and the freaks didn't have to fight alone, and the duo took more villains with them. I dunno what happened to the snow scouts, but I think that we'll see them and the Defecters (Fernald and Fiona) in book 13, along with the Quagmires and Hector if he is not dead (Which I suspect might happen in a crash or from being picked up by an eagle. (Remember Beatrice? I think Lemony's quote in TWW about having seen his true love be snatched away by an eagle may be key here.)

The stange thing here, I just noticed, is that the animals associated with nobleness are controlled by the villains, and the animals associated with villainy are still with the volunteers.

[Nicky]

rocksunner said:

Near the end of TGG, Olaf, Esme, and Carmelita were about to arrive at the Hotel Denouement and immediately burn it down. Carmelita said she was going to dance on the graves of the volunteers.

When we see them in TPP, they are staying at the hotel and planning a cocktail party for two days later. What changed?

My theory is that Fernald and Fiona's betrayal, stealing the submarine, is what made Olaf change his mind. Left without low-level henchpersons to do the dirty work, Olaf put in a call to the Menaces (MWBANH, WWHANB) and asked for the freaks back. At that point, perhaps the Menaces suggested a more refined trap, setting up a cocktail party and inviting as many victims as possible.

What do others think of this?

It's a good theory and actually makes alot of sense.