Schism!

[ice]

First post in a while...

I think I've figured out when the VFD schism occurred. In the photo the Bauds find in THH, Lemony has his back turned to the camera. In the "About the Author" pictures...same deal. It's been said here that Lemony is like that since he has to Various Finery Disguise. Now, that photo was taken before Violet was born, (we'll use that date as a reference) before Mr. and Mrs. Baudelaire were married. Violet is probably almost 15. Lemony was probably accused a while after the schism because Olaf needed a scapegoat -- a year, year and a half? Going back to Violet's age, that would make the schism roughly 16 years before the series takes place.

[Tay Sachs]

If your theory is correct, then mine also fits...
fifteen long and lonely years before Lemony can warn Beatrice of Count Olaf's treachery...as demonstrated in LSUA, the masked ball takes place AFTER TRR (they're searching for the remains of Dr. Montgomery's collection, he says)
roughly fifteen years from the schism to the masked ball puts Beatrice...still alive. Ah!

[Tyler]

Yes, the schism accured long before the Baudelaires even found out about V.F.D. Lemony has been hiding for a while now, only to protect himself from the bad V.F.D.ers.

[SnicketFires]

i read somewhere that beatrice has been dead for about 15 years. or something important about 15 years ago about VFD... ill look for it

[ice]

I think Lemony said he had to wait 15 years before he could warn Beatrice about Olaf or something like that.

[Efogoto]

It's in TAA on page 167.

[icey too lazy to log in]

Let's say the masked ball takes place during TWW. If it is 15 long and lonely years before LS can warn Beatrice...was he going to warn her at the ball? In the Vineyard of Fragrant Drapes letter in LSUA, the writer warns him (after de-sebalding) not to go to the ball because "the count will burn you and Beatrice". Where does this fit in? I think that Olaf had some part in the letter so Lemony would not go to the ball and he would have access to Beatrice to kill her for stealing from Esmé. (Whatever is in the sugar bowl probably?)

[SnicketFires]

that whole '15 years to warn beatrice' is what i meant.

[Tay Sachs]

Ok, here's what I've got.
LSUA, page 144
the coded message...
"attending your masked ball is dangerous but I'll be there." and in that same message, uncoded, "they're still searching for the survivors of Dr. Montgomery's collection."

And I figure about fifteen years because the picture of Lemony hiding his face is taken before Violet is born and Violet is about fourteen by now.
Beatrice died shortly after the masked ball, which means she was still alive as of halfway through the series.
Remember Lemony is writing all of this a while after the events have already happened.

[Efogoto]

Now I don't have my copy of TAA with me, but doesn't Lemony indicate that he attended ONE of the Duchess of Winnipeg's famed masked balls? If there are many, the one he attended could be years before and a later one could occur around TRR.

[SnicketFires]

also, if ShatteredPeach's thing is right, than the theory about Beatrice dying in the THH hosptal fire fits too. the Carrie E blahblahblah (cant think of the anagram)

[ice]

Actually, what if Carrie E blahblahblah was a red herring to throw us off of her real identity? If not, snicketfires' theory fits perfectly -- Olaf knew she was in the hospital (or got her in there) and burned her because he wanted to kill her anyway.

[SnicketFires]

odd...n/m

that would make sense-she was in the surgical ward. what would she have a surgery on?

[ice]

Fleminaflagaration? (Burning of a woman...describes Beatrice's situation perfectly) No seriously, cranioectomy?

[SnicketFires]

Fleminaflagaration seems to be perfect