What if?

[kingarthur]

What if in TAA, Count Olaf didn't capture the Quagmires? This might be easier to do in TVV, but if they weren't captured would the Baudelaires and Quagmires go to 667 Dark Avenue together, stay at the school or run away together like the Baudelaires did at the end of TWW. What do you think?

[A comet crashing into Earth]

"If Olaf didn't capture the Quagmires" is not a phrase that the Baudelaires would use very often. The reason, of course, is clear: Olaf did capture the Quagmires. They eventually escaped, yes. But the Quagmire children were captured, and so the Baudelaires wouldn't use the phrase "If Olaf didn't capture the Quagmires" any more than they would use the phrase "If we're stalks of celery", because neither phrase was appropriate.
(Have you ever gone looking for a particular quote in a book and just happened to open it on the exact right page? It's very satisfying)

I think, since the Baudelaires were eventually expelled (weren't they, in the book?), the Quagmires might have been so, too, had they not been kidnapped, simply through their association with the Baudelaires (this could sureley happen under the viceful rule of Nero). Naturally, the two sets of orphans would've tried to stick together, but with the way things work in this story, they would've been sent to different guardians, and their plans to compare notes and work together to defend themselves against treachery would've been derailed, much like Snicket's own plans to work together with Kit in the beginning of WCTBATH. They would've spent the next few books trying to reconnect, much like they did in the actual series, and all in all I think things would've played out pretty similarly, if slightly less terrifying for the Quagmires.

[kingarthur]

That a very good explanation. I think Olaf would quickly forget about the Quagmires and when Quigley reappears, they would ride off into the Sunset together.

What would probably happen is that they escape together and eventually are found either by Jacques or Kit and taken to the VFD HQ. Olaf and gang (without Esme obviously) will find them and burn down the HQ. Quigley may or may not appear, either way the Quagmires will be lost somehow and the Baudelaires will most likely end up in Hotel Denouement, where the climax will happen.

What do you think about that?

[A comet crashing into Earth]

That seems perfectly possible, too. With Olaf being so focused on the Baudelaires - even so much that he risks losing the Quagmires in order to keep pursuing them - he'd probably give up on the Quagmires and just keep following the Baudelaires. I think the only real constant to be kept in mind when thinking about alternate timelines for ASOUE is that things must, in some way or another, go terribly wrong.

[kingarthur]

I played around with the idea a bit and I envisioned a scenario in which Jacques gets shot with the harpoon gun and Isadora and Duncan end up going off of a waterfall with an ambiguous fate. If there's any interest, I might post it in the fiction section of this board.

[Dante]

An important factor which should really be taken into account in your discussion:

"The Daily Punctilio said that I died in the fire, too," Quigley said. "The article said that my sister and brother were sent off to Prufrock Preparatory School, and that my parents' estate was under the care of the city's sixth most important financial advisor.

--TSS, p. 163.

So then. Who, by analogy with Mr. Poe, is responsible for selecting the Quagmires' guardians? Esmé Squalor. So, what I would suggest is that, if the Quagmires were indeed expelled from Prufrock Prep. for helping the Baudelaires bunk off S.O.R.E., it's entirely likely that Esmé would bring the Quagmires along to 667 Dark Avenue also - and place them straight into the hands of Count Olaf. The Quagmires' capture was inevitable.

[kingarthur]

In the series, it establishes that there is a bus service to Prufock, which could be used by the orphans to get away. You say it was inevitable, but it is relatively plausible that only one Quagmire was captured. It might have been even more interesting if one Quagmire an done Baudelaire was captured by Olaf.

[Hermes]

Apr 22, 2018 14:41:31 GMT -5 Dante said:

An important factor which should really be taken into account in your discussion:

"The Daily Punctilio said that I died in the fire, too," Quigley said. "The article said that my sister and brother were sent off to Prufrock Preparatory School, and that my parents' estate was under the care of the city's sixth most important financial advisor.

--TSS, p. 163.

So then. Who, by analogy with Mr. Poe, is responsible for selecting the Quagmires' guardians? Esmé Squalor. So, what I would suggest is that, if the Quagmires were indeed expelled from Prufrock Prep. for helping the Baudelaires bunk off S.O.R.E., it's entirely likely that Esmé would bring the Quagmires along to 667 Dark Avenue also - and place them straight into the hands of Count Olaf. The Quagmires' capture was inevitable.

That is indeed implied by what Quigley says, but it is very hard to make it fit the earlier events; why should Olaf go through such convolutions to keep hold of the Quagmires when he is in a position to become their guardian quite legally?

One might argue that the arrangements could differ from those in the Baudelaire family: Esme might be in charge only of the estate, with someone else, e.g. a lawyer, acting as executioner executor and so being in charge of the children. But still, this would seem to allow Olaf to get the fortune, without even bothering to kidnap the children, so there is still a mystery.

[Dante]

Apr 22, 2018 15:45:33 GMT -5 Hermes said:

That is indeed implied by what Quigley says, but it is very hard to make it fit the earlier events; why should Olaf go through such convolutions to keep hold of the Quagmires when he is in a position to become their guardian quite legally?

One might argue that the arrangements could differ from those in the Baudelaire family: Esme might be in charge only of the estate, with someone else, e.g. a lawyer, acting as executioner executor and so being in charge of the children. But still, this would seem to allow Olaf to get the fortune, without even bothering to kidnap the children, so there is still a mystery.

It is true that there is no proof that Esmé was involved in deciding the Quagmires' guardianship, but the simple truth is that it's more interesting if that's the case, and it is difficult to see why Handler would have indicated her as serving a role analogous to Mr. Poe's if it were otherwise. As for TEE and TVV, those books are critically flawed anyway, but here's how I see it:

Esmé did not turn to open criminality until the end of TEE. Possibly she had a long-term plan, one which we never see, to heist the Quagmire Sapphires - conceivably, she could have already done so, though the plan Olaf speaks of to the Quagmires to leave them on an island until they are of age implies otherwise - but either way, until orphans became in she had no need to do anything with the Quagmires except stick them somewhere she could forget about them. Count Olaf, whether or not he knew of her status as executor of the estate, was not working with Esmé when it came to kidnapping the Quagmires in TAA; nor did he target them purely for a fortune he might have acquired by other means. No, TAA makes a solid indication of Olaf's motive for the kidnapping of the Quagmires in their furious clue-dropping as they are dragged away; that is, Olaf kidnapped the Quagmires because they knew too much, pure and simple. Their fortune was a bonus, and perhaps that's what made him look to Esmé at that time.

[Hermes]

We know, from TUA, that Olaf's connection with Esme goes back a long way: but it's totally believable that it had been broken off at some point and is now being renewed, like his connection with Lulu or (according to Netflix) Dr Orwell. So that could certainly explain why O had not tried to get control of the Quagmires or their fortune before the events of TAA. Once he knew about them, though, one might still think that he could get guardianship by a more straightforward method than he actually uses - is the idea that he is keeping them hidden specifically to stop them talking, rather than in order to get the fortune?