The Great Truce

[Optimism is my Phil-osophy]

One of the arguments used to show that Count Olaf did not set fire to the Baudelaires' house is the answer to the question: "why now"? After all, the Baudelaires would have gone through at least 14 years of relative peace, (Violet's lifetime outside the womb until the fire). Apparently, from the moment Beatrice and Bertrand left the island after they discovered a cure for the deadly fungus MM until the moment they died, there was peace in their lives despite Olaf living in the neighborhood. Only this is "apparently". In fact, shortly after leaving the island and arriving home, the Baudelaires faced a life-threatening situation. We know this because of Lemony's letter to Mrs. Baudelaire in LS to BB # 6. So there was a Penultimate Peril in Beatrice's life before the end. But there was also a great hiatus of approximately 14 years between these situations, and this period that I am calling The Great Truce.

On the other hand, from the moment Beatrice and Bertrand died, Olaf felt free to act as he pleased. He changed his attitude only when he suspected that one of the Baudelaires' parents was alive. From then on, this knowledge about it became very important, and that is why he went to consult Olivia Taliban.

The question is, why did Olaf exhibit this behavior?

At the moment I believe that this is related to the SB. My accidental theory that SB contains uranium (that was a joke) contains an interesting element. I stated that the content of the SB that belonged to Esmé is the same as that of the mysterious box that Olaf and Esmé had in hand at the construction committee meeting. I stated that at that time Esmé had not yet managed to find a safe and beautiful container for that mysterious item. I also stated that the volunteers already used other sugar bowls for some other object, and that Esmé simply used the SB that belonged to her to store the mysterious item that was in that box. Esmé's words indicate that the SB contains something deadly, and the words of Kit and Dewey indicate that the SB contains destructive potential similar to the deadly fungus MM. This description seems to fit the reaction of members of the construction committee meeting. Olaf had the small item in hand but it gave him the power to threaten people simply by removing it from some type of containment box.

Now let us turn our attention to the attitudes of Gregor A. He sought to cultivate the deadly fungus MM with the aim of countering enemies. At that time Olaf had no restrictions whatsoever on acting with his incendiary methods. Fernald supported Olaf and destroyed AA, and the deadly fungus was presumably extinguished. (It is interesting that even the MM fungus had a false death in ASOUE). Around this time (I know that because Fiona was a baby, and Fiona is a little older than Violet), we know that Beatrice and Bertrand were looking for a cure for the deadly fungus MM. This would be a protection for the associates, as Beatrice was concerned with the lives of the associates who were yet to be born (She was not so concerned with the lives of all the unborn babies in the world, but with the lives of the children in the wombs of the women of the VFD members.) She wanted to take the results of the research to the AA, through a tunnel. It is easy to see that the cure and the disease were the result of the work of the same organization. Olaf and Fernald work against the disease through fire. Fernald seems to have been motivated by a feeling that the best option for him was to act in the way that was least worse: he decided to remove AA because the destructive potential of the MM fungus could cause a much greater number of deaths than Olaf himself. Unfortunately it was necessary to remove not only the fungus, but also those responsible for the research, because otherwise they could restart the same research elsewhere. (Over time he became a villain who supported Olaf at heart, and then changed again). At the time he believed that his actions may have resulted in the death of some people, but it also resulted in the salvation of many others. (Something similar to what Lemony did at the end of? 4).

I don't think people like Beatrice and Bertrand really wanted to use the deadly fungus MM. I believe they just wanted to keep the incendiary side under control, forcing a truce by means of threat. The destruction of AA prevented this.

So Lemony knew that the destruction of AA would be a danger to the Baudelaire family. Lemony was probably talking about the fact that arsonists would no longer have restrictions to act.

On the other hand, there was still a way out for the fire extinguishing side to force a truce. They could steal the mysterious item from the box that Olaf and Esmé used to threaten the construction committee members. If I'm right, by that time this item had already been placed by Esmé in a safe and beautiful container. That's why Beatrice stole this container with the contents. This forced the incendiary side to a truce, as the biggest weapon they had in hand was now in Beatrice's hands. Thus, if Olaf or his associates used their incendiary methods, they would be at risk of being killed. And Beatrice showed that she was not kidding when (apparently) she killed Count Olaf's father or parents. Beatrice wanted to live in peace, whatever the cost. So she could take care of her children. When an accident led Beatrice and Bertrand to death, Olaf was free to act as he pleased, as the SB was lost. But when rumors about the survival of one of them surfaced again, he was soon afraid. And soon he became interested in meeting SB again. I mean, Esme and the sinister duo were more concerned with that. Without Beatrice and Bertrand to use the SB, the location of the SB itself was not that important anymore. It would be unlikely that anyone in VFD other than the Baudelaires would use lethal force. That way, Olaf could focus on getting the fortunes he always wanted.