What was the evidence on page 9 of the Snicket File

[Optimism is my Phil-osophy]

To answer that question, it is critical that you keep in mind that page 13 of the Snicket File does not refer to Quigley when talking about experts who now believe there may be a survivor of the fire. As I explained earlier, this phrase would not make sense in the case of Quigley, since Isadora and Ducan also survived the same fire, and that was public knowledge. The phrase does not say "one more survivor", only that there may be a survivor.
The reason they think so is what is on page 9 of the Snicket File.




Due to the photos found on page 13, it is very likely that the fire that the page refers to is the fire at the Baudelaire mansion.

The same page makes reference to the evidence found on page 9. Now I can say that I can better visualize what happened. I can say that there was a big misunderstanding caused by Lemony Snicket. To begin with, I believe that the survivor mentioned on page 13 is Lemony Snicket. After all, his photo (even though it's covered up) is there on page 13. But there's more evidence of that. During the main events of ASOUE, Kit Snicket and Jacques Snicket believed that Lemony Snicket was possibly dead. (Although they both knew he might be alive). Jacques consulted with Olivia about the possibility that Lemony is alive. And Kit Snicket (in LSTUA) wrote a letter to the cheesemakers in which she stated that she was trying to clear Lemony of the accusation of being an arsonist. In this same letter, Kit says he knows that Lemony may be dead. BH's letter to Lemony indicates that Lemony would be accused of the fire at the Baudelaire mansion. In other words, no one would accuse Lemony of setting fire to the Baudelaire mansion if the general public believed that at the time of this fire, Lemony was dead. So, who believe that Lemony is an arsonist and that Lemony is dead during Asoue's main events, believe that Lemony set fire to the Baudelaire mansion and died in the very fire he set. When experts analyzed the location of the fire, they deduced that only two people died in that fire. Then they came to believe that perhaps the arsonist could have survived. And for some reason, they believed the arsonist was Lemony Snicket.

Now let's think from Lemony Snicket's point of view. When the fire at the Baudelaire mansion started and Lemony discovered that the house was on fire, he sent Mr. BH there, according to LSTUA. Mr. BH had two goals: to identify if there were any survivors and to find something that could clear Lemony Snicket. In other words, during the fire at the Baudelaire mansion, Lemony Snicket already knew that he could be accused of setting that house on fire. How could Lemony know that he could be accused of starting that fire that was still going on? First, I want to clarify that Lemony was not at the Baudelaire mansion during the fire. In his personal notes in the book TBBRE, Lemony makes it clear that he does not know whether the Baudelaires actually received visitors that morning or not. However, Lemony wrote something important for this theory. In a note, Lemony states that the Baudelaires asked the children to go to the beach because they had urgent business. According to Lemony, these urgent deals were postponed indefinitely due to death. This phraseology together with all the evidence pointed out seems to indicate that these urgent matters would be dealt with by Lemony Snicket himself. Thus, I deduce the following:

The contents of page 9 of the Snicket File were information, probably a letter and perhaps a telegram, indicating that Lemony Snicket was going to the Baudelaires' house at a certain time. The Baudelaires asked the children to go to the beach due to the fact that they did not want the children to be involved with VFD. Lemony, however, has a bad habit of being late. And that is what happened that day. While Lemony was late and prevented by some circumstance beyond his control to go personally to the Baudelaires' house, he learned of the start of the fire. He then asked Mr. BH to go there. He realized that he would be accused of that fire if the experts found the telegram or letter he sent and listed the time that Lemony said it would arrive with the time the fire started. And that is indeed what happened. After the fire, the experts found the letter or telegram. And they didn't find a third body. Hence the experts came to the following conclusion: Perhaps there is indeed a survivor of the fire, but his whereabouts are unknown. This phrase also indicates that experts know that there may be no survivors, and the fire was just an accident. That's what I believe at the moment. But I understand why experts need to consider the possibility of a survivor.

[Dante]

This is actually a very good theory, Jean Lucio. The logic is a bit serpentine, but the actual conclusion links up well with the evidence and makes intuitive sense; the way you connect Lemony having knowledge of the Baudelaire parents' urgent business with his lack of awareness of what transpired at the mansion is a particularly subtle bit of reasoning. One potential counter-argument is that Quigley in TSS indicates that Jacques was working with both his siblings on the Snicket File (p. 195), so it would be strange for them to write so ambiguously about Lemony's survival; but you could argue that Lemony made major contributions exclusively before the Baudelaire fire, and the Snickets' uncertainty about his survival from that incident would explain how they could have been working closely with him on the file but come to a point where Kit in The End thinks he's dead. It's also possible that the experts referred to on the final page are people other than the Snicket siblings themselves, and page thirteen is therefore reporting outside knowledge which the Snickets might know better than (but there again, there's Kit thinking her siblings are both dead, so).

[Optimism is my Phil-osophy]

Wow, thank you! And thanks again for the counter argument and counter counter argument. I might add that Jacques seems to have come to the conclusion that Lemony was indeed alive after his investigation. Olivia seems to know the reliable answer about Lemony being alive, (perhaps because she saw Lemony during the first crystal ball break, even though we don't know exactly when it happened). Anyway, Jacques seems to have died before he could tell Kit about Lemony's survival, because after the events recorded in THH, Kit still wasn't sure that Lemony was alive. On Jacques' investigation, he apparently concentrated (before he died) on innocuing Lemony. This seems to make sense when we think that part of the Snicket File was about the Snicket Fires, that is, an attempt by Kit and Jacques to clear Lemony of the accusation launched against Lemony that he had started fires (including the fire at the Baudelaire mansion). Probably the draft of the beginning of TBB was found by Jacques and sent to the records library in order to prove that Lemony Snicket was still alive, as he had information about the three Baudelaires after the fire started.

Despite this, as I said, Snicket File is evidently not just about Snicket Fires. Olaf has reason to fear the Snicket File, because he believes there is information that could lead to his arrest. Quigley's statement coupled with Olaf's behavior makes me believe that the Snicket File was produced around the time of the salmon theft. At that moment there is evidence that the three Snickets fight together against Olaf's supporters. After that, (after Violet's birth), Olaf apparently behaved like a good boy, until the death of the Beatrices and Bertrand. Thus, the crimes to which the Snicket File may have records are from the time of events related to AA and Gregor.